Former President Barack Obama won Miami-Dade by large margins, grabbing 62 percent of the vote on his way to winning Florida in 2012.
However, recent election results suggest that Democrats’ loyal Miami-Dade base is slipping away. In 2020, the Democratic margin of victory fell precipitously, with President Joe Biden winning the county by only 7 percent. Two House seats covering Miami-Dade also flipped red.
Just over 69 percent of Miami-Dade’s population is Hispanic, and Cuban Americans make up the largest share of Hispanic voters. Former President Donald Trump and Republicans have also tried to tie Democrats to the Cuban regime when they proposed looser travel and trade rules. This rhetoric resonated well as Cuban immigrants fled communism to come to America.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has said GOP voters in Miami-Dade, particularly Hispanics, are souring on the Biden administration over runaway inflation, particularly gas prices.
“Hispanic voters are moving toward the GOP in no small part due to Republicans speaking directly to the issues these voters care about and the massive failures of the Biden administration,” Rubio said in a statement. “Just like all Americans, Hispanics are experiencing pain at the gas pump and record inflation, and they rightfully blame Democrat-controlled Washington.”
Democrats will focus their campaign on local issues, former congresswoman Donna Shalala told POLITICO. Shalala represented Florida’s 27th District for one term but lost her seat to Republican Maria Elvira Salazar in 2020.
“The truth is that we have a do-nothing Republican Party in Miami-Dade that has done nothing to improve the quality of life and the opportunities of people in Miami-Dade,” Shalala said.