Ranking the 2020 vulnerability of Florida’s congressional delegation

Tampa Bay Times
By Louis Jacobson

We’re still 15 months away from Election Day 2020, but it’s never too soon to assess the vulnerability of Florida’s congressional delegation.

For the sixth straight cycle, we’ll be publishing assessments that rank Florida’s U.S. House districts in descending order, starting with the most vulnerable. We define “vulnerable” as the likelihood that the opposing party will seize control of the seat in 2020; the possibility of a loss by an incumbent in an intra-party primary does not factor into our calculations.

At this early point in the election cycle – before many of the challengers are known and before incumbents start to announce their retirements – we’ve sorted the districts into two categories, “vulnerable” and “potentially vulnerable.” We may include additional categories as the cycle progresses. The seats in the delegation not listed below are not considered vulnerable at this time.

As of now, the state of play presents both parties with opportunities and vulnerabilities. Here’s our take:

Vulnerable seats
1. District 27: Rep. Donna Shalala (D)

Read more here.